Hurricane Rafael Strikes Cayman Islands, Projected to Strengthen Before Cuba Landfall

Cayman Islands Hit by Hurricane Rafael

The Cayman Islands are currently feeling the effects of Hurricane Rafael, which lashed the area with strong winds and heavy rain on Tuesday night. As a Category 1 hurricane, Rafael is expected to strengthen further before making landfall in Cuba at some point on Wednesday. This marks the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Updates and Alerts

As Rafael makes its way through the western Caribbean, forecasters have noted that there is more uncertainty than usual regarding where the storm might head next, especially once it enters the Gulf of Mexico midweek. With maximum sustained winds reaching up to 80 mph on Tuesday night, there is a possibility that the Gulf Coast could be impacted this weekend. However, it is also possible that Rafael may skip the Gulf Coast entirely and continue towards northeastern Mexico.

With expectations that the forecasts will become clearer in the next 48 hours, residents in areas potentially affected are urged to stay updated. Currently, three key points are understood: the storm will be weakening as it approaches the Gulf, it is not expected to be as intense as hurricanes Helene and Milton, and the Caribbean will experience the most severe weather from this storm. Both a hurricane and tropical storm alert have been issued for most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands, meaning citizens in these regions must remain vigilant.

Impact on the Cayman Islands and Cuba

As Rafael passed through the Cayman Islands, residents were warned to brace themselves for dangerous storm surges and destructive waves. Predictions from the National Hurricane Center suggest that the storm will “rapidly intensify” over the next 24 hours, likely becoming a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches western Cuba.

Areas in the Cayman Islands might see a storm surge of up to 3 feet, while western Cuba could face surges as high as 9 feet above normal tide levels. Furthermore, widespread rainfall estimated between 3 to 6 inches is anticipated from Jamaica to western Cuba, with some areas possibly exceeding these amounts due to heavy tropical rain. This rainfall poses a heightened risk of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in Jamaica’s higher terrain.

Travel Warnings and Advice

In light of these developments, the US State Department has advised Americans currently in Cuba to consider leaving early due to the impending arrival of Tropical Storm Rafael. They also recommended that travelers with plans to visit Cuba rethink their trips. It is worth noting that while American travel for tourism to Cuba is prohibited, travel for family and educational purposes is allowed.

Additionally, the State Department has facilitated the voluntary departure of its non-emergency employees and their families from Cuba as the storm approaches.

Future Projections and Risks

Rafael has the potential to be the sixth named storm to hit the US this season, but its eventual path remains uncertain due to several atmospheric factors. Two different forecast models suggest opposing paths for the storm, heightening the overall uncertainty regarding its potential impact in the US. One model suggests a northward movement toward the eastern Gulf Coast after Rafael hits Cuba, while the other predicts a more westward trajectory that could lead to landfall in northeastern Mexico.

Regardless of its ultimate path, areas along the Gulf Coast are encouraged to prepare for possibly heavy rainfall starting Wednesday. A level 1 of 4 flooding risk has been issued for much of the southeastern region, with some areas in Georgia and South Carolina elevated to a level 2 of 4. While some regions may experience rapid flooding, others have dry soils which may delay flooding impacts. Changes in Rafael’s course will affect which areas experience significant rainfall later in the week.