Hurricane Season Alert: Tropical Disturbance Brewing in the Atlantic

Even as recovery efforts are still ongoing from Hurricane Beryl’s sweep, all eyes are on the Atlantic, where another tropical disturbance has been noticed. Weeks after Beryl left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean and plunged the southeast of Texas into darkness, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are noting signs of a developing system in the central Atlantic.

Impact of Saharan Dust

Over the past month, the tropical cyclone formation and thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic have been curtailed by plumes of dust made up of sand and particle minerals from Africa’s Sahara Desert, coupled with extremely dry air. However, forecasters predict an increase in activity towards the end of July and early August as the dust and dry air reduce, and ocean temperatures continue to see an upward trend.

An AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist informed USA TODAY that the development of La Niña hints at an escalation in tropical systems. While a lull was expected until August, the chances for development are projected to increase from now on.

NOAA’s New Atlantic Disturbance Alert

The National Hurricane Center announced an “area of disturbed weather” over the central Atlantic Ocean poised to interact with a nearing tropical wave. The chance of development stands at 40% over the next seven days. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression by mid-to-late week, potentially impacting the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Last Disturbance: The Beryl Aftermath

Just two weeks prior, the Atlantic experienced a lull in tropical activity, which followed the early July landfall of Beryl on Carriacou Island. The hurricane began as a Category 4 devastation before it weakened to Category 1. Its impacts were nonetheless severe as it lashed the Texas coast, leading the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to label the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as “explosive”.

The Road Ahead

Although the area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa recently brings a potential for development in August, as the National Hurricane Center indicates, dusty and dry conditions over the Atlantic could halt it. Nonetheless, if the disturbance manages to push through these hostile conditions, it may face more favorable circumstances for development.

Experts also note that the Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 through Nov. 30, sees its peak activity during August and September. Therefore, we are moving into the period when developments are most likely.

Beryl, A Harbinger for a Hyperactive Season Ahead?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is foreseen to be perilous, and Beryl seems to have set the tone, breaking records as the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form. With its impact, forecasters increased their hurricane forecast to a total of 12 hurricanes and 25 storms for the season.

In May, NOAA predicted an 85% chance of an above-normal season, forecasting 17 to 25 total named storms with eight to 13 escalating into hurricanes. The hyperactive season projection is attributed to warmer-than-normal Atlantic water temperatures, La Niña conditions development in the Pacific, curtailed trade winds, and reduced wind shear in the Atlantic.

Experts have even highlighted the “absolutely stunning” water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which have been breaking daily heat records since 2023. As the season progresses, the world watches and prepares for what this brewing disturbance may bring.

Author: HERE Spartanburg